US Cannabis Market Landscape Methodology

This article covers how we approach researching and forecasting the U.S. cannabis market and the value it provides our clients.

Research Sources

Brightfield Group uses a multi-source research methodology to provide clients with a realistic top-down and bottom-up view of the dynamic, multifaceted US cannabis market. Our methodology incorporates sourcing including but not limited to reported data at the state level, interviews with industry stakeholders, consumer surveys, storefront data, and various forms of desk research. 

Government Data

Our analysts regularly review and track published government data in both medical and adult-use markets to ensure our forecasting incorporates and aligns with published figures.

Industry interviews

Our team speaks with industry stakeholders including:

• Cultivators and brands
• Cannabis dispensaries
• Industry experts and stakeholders 

Consumer Surveys 

We collect detailed consumer survey data integrated with social media - covering demographics, usage and spending, product type preferences, and various other consumer behaviors and purchasing patterns to inform market growth figures. Our consumer segmentation also helps Brightfield analysts identify trends as they occur and make informed predictions with respect to future changes in purchasing patterns. Respondents provide their social media information with informed consent. 

Storefront Data

We regularly check both online menus and licensed cannabis stores to assess bestselling items, pricing, product assortment, new product developments, innovative brands, and unique marketing strategies. Our analysts also utilize our Distribution Trends product data to assess what goods and brands are widely distributed and keep on top of changes to the United States cannabis product landscape. 

Desk Research

Brightfield collects and utilizes a variety of additional desk research sources, including published company financial documents, earnings calls, press releases, trade association data, trade and consumer press, industry news, and social media.   

How do you use all this research?

All of these inputs are pulled together and triangulated by our team of analysts and data scientists, and we are constantly adding more data and inputs to analyses. To develop our forecasts, Brightfield uses statistical methods for time-series data to create accurate forecasts from the reported market values which are then reviewed and adjusted by our team of industry experts. At the time of each refresh, we do a thorough review of official data sources to ensure that our forecasts are consistent with published figures for past years and integrate ongoing sales trends into our forecasting procedures. When states publish figures sales figures by product type we ensure that these are included in our published figures while this data may be estimated based on previously mentioned data sources for states that do not publish such figures. Even in the case of states that do not publish official sales figures, such as Alaska which only discloses wholesale volumes of product, we ensure that the trends displayed are integrated into out methodology.

For markets where sufficient data is available, we use a machine learning forecasting algorithm called the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), a model that is commonly used for forecasting future values from data that are measured in equal time intervals (such as monthly or quarterly). For states that either have too few data points or are forecasted to begin sales in or after 2022, we utilize a selection of similar states and calculate a weighted average of both their first year sales and growth rates to arrive at our forecasted values.

All our data is designed to be cross-comparable, and we check against multiple sources to validate our forecasts as best as possible. Sources utilized include company-reported figures, state reports, and consumer insights data. We are also able to cross-compare on key data inputs (users as a % of the population, penetration by retail channel, per capita spending, etc.). 

How often do you update your market sizes and analysis?  

Our United States cannabis market analysis is typically updated twice annually. During one of these refreshes, we focus on doing a substantive review of our market sizes while the other is largely qualitative, often with some tweaks to our forecasts in order to account for recently published data and market developments. We are constantly tracking news and developments in the market to incorporate in future updates and will also make changes to our content outside of schedules refreshes when major developments occur to ensure that our data remains comprehensive and useful. If you have specific questions or needs that need to be addressed urgently or are not covered in the existing analysis, you can always use your analyst hours to get more in-depth information from our Insights team or request a custom study for those deeper questions which require additional research (beyond a couple of hours of analyst time). 

How accurate have your projections been in the past?

Since we use as many sources as possible to aid in our projections, we have found our forecasts have been much more accurate than others in the market. While not always perfect, the projections are directionally accurate, allowing you to make sound business decisions. With that said, we are continuously improving our processes to ensure that the data we deliver is reliable and accurate.